You Know It's a Good Bet. Now Size It: The Bet Sizer
When you're sure of the move but stuck on how much to commit, stop guessing at the number. Run the Bet Sizer to set a stake matched to your edge, your odds, and what a loss actually costs you.
The stuck moment. You run a 14-truck HVAC company and you've decided to add a second location across town. That part you're sure of: demand is there, your ops can stretch. What freezes you is the number. Do you sign a 5-year lease, hire four techs, and buy two trucks now ($280K committed)? Or open lean with one tech and a sublease ($60K) and grow into it? Both feel defensible at 11pm. You're not stuck on whether, you're stuck on how much. That's a sizing problem, and sizing it by gut is how good operators blow up on a right call.
The recipe: the Bet Sizer. Five moves you can run on one page.
- Name the bet and the time horizon. One sentence. "Open a second location and reach breakeven within X months." If you can't say it in a sentence, you're sizing two bets.
- Estimate your real edge and your odds. What's your honest probability this works (say 65%)? What does "works" pay, and what does "fails" cost? Force actual numbers instead of adjectives.
- Find your ruin line. What's the largest loss that does NOT threaten the core business? That's your hard ceiling. Never size a bet above the number that can kill you, no matter how good the odds.
- Size to the edge. Bigger edge + better odds = bigger stake, but always under the ruin line. Excitement gets no vote. When uncertain, take the smallest version that still produces real signal.
- Define the next-bet trigger. What result greenlights you to put in more? Pre-decide it now, while you're calm, so you scale on evidence instead of adrenaline.
The AI move: paste and run.
You are a risk-and-capital-allocation advisor to a small-business owner.
CONTEXT: I've already DECIDED to make this bet. My question is only HOW MUCH to commit.
- The bet: [one sentence]
- Time horizon to judge it: [e.g. 12 months]
- If it works, the upside is: [$ / outcome]
- If it fails, the cost is: [$ / outcome]
- My honest probability it works: [%]
- My total available capital / cash cushion: [$]
- The loss that would genuinely threaten my core business: [$ = my ruin line]
TASK:
1. Give me three sizing options (Minimum Viable Bet, Moderate, Full Commitment),
each with the exact dollar/resource commitment and what signal each one buys me.
2. Flag any option that crosses or crowds my ruin line, and say why.
3. Recommend ONE size given my odds and downside, and explain the reasoning in 3 sentences.
4. Give me a specific, measurable trigger that would justify increasing the bet later.
FORMAT: A short table for the three options, then your recommendation, then the trigger.
CONSTRAINTS: Stick to my numbers and skip generic advice. Never recommend a stake above my ruin
line. If my inputs are missing or unrealistic, tell me what to nail down before I commit a dollar.
What it's worth. The difference between a $60K test and a $280K all-in on the same right idea, and whether one bad quarter is a lesson or the end of the company.